WeatherBlog 15 2019/20 | Western weather, but colder

Yulia brought temperatures above 20 °C to Innsbruck for the first time this year and rain up to very high altitudes in the mountains. There was wind damage, especially in Lower Austria, where Yulia was more severe than Sabine in some places.

Current situation

The current, more or less wintry interlude brought by low pressure Zehra, which has already been addressed by the PowderGuide.com, is of course much more pleasing for suffering winter friends. Let's look at the big picture first. Not too much has changed here since last week and the week before that and the week before that and the week before that. The polar vortex is and remains roundish and strong. To the west of Greenland, cold air flows south, which stimulates the development of low pressure in the northwest Atlantic. The Atlantic lows then move fairly directly towards Europe in the strong westerly drift, with some of them meandering a little more than others along the way.

The repeating pattern in the Alpine region looks like this: Warm air advection occurs in front of the trough (to the east) of the approaching low - due to the direction of rotation of the low, warm air from the south is pushed into the Alps. With the arrival of the warm front, rain joins the high temperatures. The trough moves on, the current turns from SW to NW, a cold front may bring some cooling and a little snow, then it will be sunny for a short time, then the next low will be just around the corner.

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Temperature deviation from the climatological mean in Austria on 23.2.

ZAMG

Our current weather-determining low is "lurching" a little more than the last few, giving the westerly basic current a stronger northerly component and thus bringing comparatively cold air to us since yesterday afternoon. The congestion effects are also more pronounced. The northern western Alps will get a lot more of it, the further east (north), the more it will remain a grazing shot. The exception is the south-east: with the development of low pressure in the Mediterranean, there will probably also be fresh snow in the Julian Alps and Karawanken. For details, please refer to the report from the oracle.

Outlook

Tomorrow, Thursday, it will remain cold, at least by the standards of winter 2019/20, and it will continue to snow in the north and north-west, with intermittent clearings. Visibility will tend to deteriorate again in the afternoon, with increasing precipitation. This will largely subside by Friday morning and it will become quite sunny during the course of the day. Towards the evening, however, the next disturbance threatens with, you guessed it, significantly higher temperatures. Hopefully it won't bring too much precipitation, but at least some rain at higher altitudes is conceivable, especially in the north-east.

ThetaE at 850hPa for Friday, February 29: The warm front of the next Atlantic low will bring warmer air masses and hopefully no more rain up to high altitudes... — ThetaE at 850hPa for Friday, 29.2.: The warm front of the next Atlantic low will bring warmer air masses and hopefully not rain up to high altitudes again...

meteociel.fr

The exact development over the weekend is still rather uncertain, but it will remain generally stormy and changeable. Saturday looks dry, rather mild and comparatively friendly (not cloudless), with persistent strong winds from a roughly westerly direction. Sunday will probably be a little colder again and snow showers (rain at lower altitudes) are to be expected.

The trend in the forecast is currently cyclonic westerly, i.e. roughly the same as now. A harsh onset of winter down to low altitudes at the meteorological start of spring is not to be expected, but the chances of temperatures below 20 °C (you're getting modest) and snow accumulation at higher altitudes are not too bad.