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ISSW2018 Innsbruck | Where are developments in snow avalanche science heading?

You have to know your shit

by Lukas Ruetz • 11/11/2018
From October 7 to 12, Innsbruck became the center of the world. The world of snow and avalanches. The International Snow Science Workshop was held for the first time in the "Capital of the Alps". A review of a successful week and a look ahead to interesting developments in avalanche prevention and accident management for winter sports enthusiasts:

Strolling through the Dogana Hall in Innsbruck's Congress Center at the beginning of October, the Matura Ball associations that young Innsbruck residents associate with this building were quickly displaced by the white gold. Almost 300 mostly English posters were exhibited there for a week. Topics: New findings on the problem of old snow, evaluations of the terrain preferences of ski tourers depending on the danger level, studies on the injury patterns of avalanche dogs, new methods for avalanche risk assessment and much, much more. However, the posters were only a small part of the International Snow-Avalanche Congress. But one thing at a time.

Opening of the ISSW2018

Opening of the ISSW2018

Congress Innsbruck

Opening of the ISSW2018

Congress Innsbruck

What is the ISSW actually?

A conference for all those who deal with snow worldwide, whether researchers or practitioners. The ISSW has set itself the goal of bringing people from both areas together and linking practice with theory. For the common winter sports enthusiast as well as for mountain rescuers, mountain guides, avalanche commission members, Ratrac drivers and scientists. It has been held every two years since 1976, alternating between Canada, the USA and Europe. In six years' time, it will therefore take place somewhere in Europe again. Last October, it was held in Austria for the first time.

For a week, all the findings and innovations within the thematic framework were presented and discussed. Whether protective measures such as blasting or shoring, the influence of global warming, snow management in ski resorts, avalanche commission work, snowpack stability, avalanche warning, avalanche accidents, legal aspects of these, human factors, decision-making in the terrain, avalanche training or snow as a habitat for microorganisms - all aspects of snow were covered in over 100 lectures and approx. 300 posters.

In the following, we provide a basic overview of where the journey in the field of snow and avalanches is currently heading and what innovations have emerged in recent years.

Computer models

A considerable number of researchers are now working on imitating reality using computers. Whether it's avalanches or the processes in the snowpack, everything can be modeled more or less well and calculated by processors. Thanks to technical developments, the necessary computing power is now available. In the meantime, so-called model chains are also becoming increasingly important: a weather model calculates the weather situation, a snowpack model uses this to calculate the layering of the snowpack, an avalanche simulation model uses this to calculate the probability of avalanches and an avalanche dynamics model uses terrain models to calculate the size of the avalanche, the run-out length and the pressure with which it could hit the first houses. It still sounds like a dream of the future, but it is becoming increasingly important and the models are becoming more accurate and realistic.

Ski area management

Of course, technical snow is becoming increasingly important, but snow farming - i.e. the preservation of snow with piles and tarpaulins - is also playing a growing role and is apparently also usually more economical and energy-efficient than producing technical snow.

Remote sensing

The investigation of snow cover from a distance using satellites, drones, radar, lasers and sound is on the rise, also driven by technological developments. Interesting: Comparisons of satellite photos clearly show that the snow line has been moving further and further upwards in the Alps at the same time in spring since the 1980s.

Climate warming

No one denies that it has become warmer over the last thirty years. It seems very likely that it will get even warmer and that we will no longer be able to prevent it. During the ISSW, situation analyses were therefore mainly presented and adaptation strategies discussed. In a nutshell: As things currently stand, there will hardly be any more (natural) snow in the Alps below 1,500m in the medium term; a decent snow cover that can be skied on could only form above 2,000m in the majority of winters. On average, there is less snow at all altitudes - because it rains more often. Whether there will be more or less precipitation overall is unclear. The next ice age will most likely come a few thousand years later and then these problems will no longer plague us, but who wants to wait that long?

Communicating the avalanche risk

Maps are becoming increasingly important! This means not only assigning a danger level and displaying the rest with symbols and text. In the near future, it is expected that risk maps with color gradations will be created using data from the avalanche forecast and the Munter reduction method in combination with a terrain model. Slopes with a theoretically higher risk are colored red and those with a lower risk are colored green or not colored at all - and no longer just according to the slope steepness but according to a variety of parameters, such as the severity of the avalanche problem and its spatial location. Together with a GPS track of the tour, it is even possible to automatically generate risk assessments for individual tours. A project of this kind has already been running in Switzerland for several years. Regardless of whether you think it's good or bad: it will change the way we plan tours, especially for beginners and occasional ski tourers, and still won't be able to completely replace our own brainpower any time soon.

Bruce Tremper's recommendation for beginners in avalanche science

Bruce Tremper's recommendation for beginners in avalanche science

Bruce Tremper's recommendation for beginners in avalanche science

Avalanche warning

In general, there is a global trend towards standardization and adaptation of the various products. In this context, the Tyrolean Avalanche Warning Service presented a globally unique project at the ISSW: The joint, cross-border and multilingual avalanche forecast for Tyrol, South Tyrol and Trentino - a prototype is already available at lawinen.report. But the basics behind it are also being investigated. For example, Swiss colleagues from the Davos Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research have compared the frequency of danger levels 4 & 5 issued in the Alpine region and found striking differences between various warning services. Although the levels follow a more or less precise, common definition, there are major differences in how the avalanche forecasters ultimately assign them. Incidentally, it is also slowly becoming standard practice to publish the avalanche report as a forecast the evening before and no longer in the morning. Great for tour planning!

In addition, the Swiss have analyzed their huge database of observed avalanches and have come to a clear conclusion: There are proportionally the same number of large avalanches at danger level 1 as at danger level 4. What has long been assumed, i.e. that there are proportionally more large avalanches as the avalanche danger increases, is wrong. This deceptive assumption arose from the fact that with, for example, 10 avalanches across the whole of Tyrol at danger level 1, it is more difficult to have one of the relatively rarer, large avalanches due to the absolute quantity. With 10,000 avalanches throughout Tyrol at a level 4, this is more likely.

Decision making & avalanche training

Message from a lecture by Pascal Haegeli - head of a snow research group in Vancouver/Canada: "People, be careful if you have an airbag. It's a great way to increase the probability of survival in the event of an avalanche, but don't be more risky because of it!"

In general, there is a trend for munter-based methods such as the ÖAV's Stop or Go or the DAV's Snowcard to only be taught to beginners. This is because the scope of avalanche awareness is far too great to be able to learn everything in just a few days. In the meantime, there is a shift back towards providing advanced skiers with comprehensive avalanche training and teaching them as much as possible so that they can later use all the decision-making options in an objective, level-headed and sometimes intuitive way. The further development of snowpack tests (ECT and PST) over the last ten years has made a significant contribution to this.

A quote from Bruce Tremper - retired avalanche warden from Utah and luminary in the scene - on teaching avalanche training: "1. Know your stuff before you go. If you don't know your way around, learn. If you know your way around, get good information. 2. don't go where it's dangerous."

The highlight at the end of the lecture by Markus Landrø, who as an avalanche forecaster in Norway has evaluated the preferred decision-making of ski tourers: "You have to know your shit." - "You just have to know your bullshit."... by the way, he found out: fixed rules are used by a minority for decision-making, the majority rely on an analytical approach and intuition.

Avalanche accident management

How to best probe, how to best deal with avalanche accidents or how large or how shaped a shovel blade should best be is also in the interest of further development. Interesting fact: If you increase the surface area of conventional avalanche shovels, the duration of the excavation does not change much. And very important: With the chopping function, which many shovels provide, you are slower than if you dig normally!

Last but not least: If you don't practice regularly (i.e. at least twice a winter) with avalanche equipment in a realistic scenario (!), you have a very poor chance of making a live find when rescuing comrades. A quarter of an hour is simply very short and, in conjunction with the stress-induced change in consciousness in such an extreme situation, even shorter.

Karl Birkeland developed the ECT together with Ron Simenhois more than 10 years ago.

Karl Birkeland developed the ECT together with Ron Simenhois more than 10 years ago.

And somehow still like a school prom

Looking back, ISSW2018 was a big party. The entire snow avalanche community came together and we were able to exchange ideas in a friendly atmosphere. Because everyone in this profession has a similar "bird" - whether a Canadian, a New Zealander or us - the social part was in the foreground and you could make contacts with mountain guides, heliski guides or avalanche forecasters from all over the world - probably the most important aspect of the conference.

More detailed information on individual contributions and highlights will follow.

The written contributions of all ISSWs can be browsed in full under the following link (mostly in English): http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/

Photo gallery

This article has been automatically translated by DeepL with subsequent editing. If you notice any spelling or grammatical errors or if the translation has lost its meaning, please write an e-mail to the editors.

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